COMPENSACION DE DEUDA PUBLICA ENTRE PAISES DE LA ZONA EURO

ESCP EUROPE BUSINESS SCHOOL ha
apoyado un estudio sobre las hipotéticas consecuencias de compensar las posiciones acreedoras y deudoras en deuda pública que mantienen los países de la eurozona con la idea de aclarar la situación y ver si los resultados sugieren una vía de salida a la crisis menos traumática.

La situación de partida, en Mayo de 2011, y la situción final, después de la hipotética compensación, son las que se resumen en los cuadros arriba reproducidos.El primero es el de la situación "neta" después de compensaciones y el segundo el de la situación previa.

Los autores resumen los resultados así:

"The EU countries in the study can reduce their total debt by 64% through cross cancellation of interlinked debt;

Six countries – Ireland, Italy, Spain, Britain, France and Germany – can write off more than 50% of their outstanding debt;

Three countries - Ireland, Italy, and Germany – can reduce their obligations such that they owe more than €1bn to only 2 other countries.

Additionally:

Around 50% of Portugal’s debt is owed to Spain;

Ireland and Italy can write off all of their debt to other PIIGS countries, and Ireland can reduce its debt from almost 130% of GDP to under 20% of GDP;

Greece can reduce their debt by 20%, with 60% owed to France and 30% to Germany;

Britain has the highest absolute amount of debt before and after the write off (owed mostly to Spain and Germany) but can reduce their debt to GDP ratio by 34 percentage points;

France can virtually eliminate its debt (by 99.76%) – reducing it to just 0.06% of GDP;"

Es un inicio para intentar desmadejar la tela de araña de la deuda.La circunstancia de que mucha deuda esté interrelacionada ofrece una oprtunidad para resolver el problema.

La web del estudio

Un link al estudio completo

LA LIQUIDEZ Y LA CRISIS DEL SISTEMA MONETARIO EUROPEO

Uno de los problemas más graves de Europa es que los verdaderos debates sobre la situación actual de la crisis del sistema monetario tienen lugar, más frecuentemente, fuera de sus fronteras.

Así lo pone de manifiesto el comentario y los cuadros del mismo aquí reproducidos, después de que la crisis haya sido dilatada de nuevo con el nuevo programa de liquidez de los bancos centrales a los bancos de la eurozona.

El comentario se refiere, agudamente, al momento “Lehman” europeo y a la envergadura y aparente imposibilidad de un programa como el TARP americano a nivel europeo.

“The most scathing report describing in exquisite detail the coming financial apocalypse in Europe comes not from some fringe blogger or soundbite striving politician, but from perpetual bulge bracket wannabe, Jefferies and specifically its chief market strategist David Zervos.

The bottom line is that it looks like a Lehman like event is about to be unleashed on Europe WITHOUT an effective TARP like structure fully in place. Now maybe, just maybe, they can do what the US did and build one on the fly - wiping out a few institutions and then using an expanded EFSF/Eurobond structure to prevent systemic collapse. But politically that is increasingly feeling like a long shot. Rather it looks like we will get 17 TARPs - one for each country. That is going to require a US style socialization of each banking system - with many WAMUs, Wachovias, AIGs and IndyMacs along the way. The road map for Europe is still 2008 in the US, with the end game a country by country socialization of their commercial banks. The fact is that the Germans are NOT going to pay for pan European structure to recap French and Italian banks - even though it is probably a more cost effective solution for both the German banks and taxpayers....Expect a massive policy response in Europe and a move towards financial market nationlaization that will make the US experience look like a walk in the park. " Must read for anyone who wants a glimpse of the endgame. Oh, good luck China. You'll need it.”

Esta es la historia completa