EN EL OJO DEL HURACAN

La cara de la crisis de la eurozona

EconoMonitor : RGE Analysts » Eurozone Crisis: In the Eye of the Storm

"But for the firewall to work both its EU and IMF elements must be large enough. This is far from guaranteed, and failure on this point could trigger a massive escalation of the crisis. On the EU side of the firewall, there are currently two funds in place, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which has around 250 billion euros in available funding, and the 500 billion euro European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The former is due to replace the ESM in June 2012, but the only way to amass enough funds to cover Italy and Spain’s financing needs for a few years is to run the EFSF and ESM concurrently. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel remains — for now, at least — vehemently opposed to this idea. Similarly on the IMF side, many countries have indicated their reluctance to contribute to a firewall until the Eurozone devotes more of its own collective resources to solving its crisis.

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Figure 2: Composition of the Firewall vs. Financing Costs for the PIIGS (€, billions)"

Source: EFSF, ESM, RGE estimates* We assume that Italy and Spain will not be forced to request official financing before 2013

LA LIQUIDEZ Y LA CRISIS DEL SISTEMA MONETARIO EUROPEO

Uno de los problemas más graves de Europa es que los verdaderos debates sobre la situación actual de la crisis del sistema monetario tienen lugar, más frecuentemente, fuera de sus fronteras.

Así lo pone de manifiesto el comentario y los cuadros del mismo aquí reproducidos, después de que la crisis haya sido dilatada de nuevo con el nuevo programa de liquidez de los bancos centrales a los bancos de la eurozona.

El comentario se refiere, agudamente, al momento “Lehman” europeo y a la envergadura y aparente imposibilidad de un programa como el TARP americano a nivel europeo.

“The most scathing report describing in exquisite detail the coming financial apocalypse in Europe comes not from some fringe blogger or soundbite striving politician, but from perpetual bulge bracket wannabe, Jefferies and specifically its chief market strategist David Zervos.

The bottom line is that it looks like a Lehman like event is about to be unleashed on Europe WITHOUT an effective TARP like structure fully in place. Now maybe, just maybe, they can do what the US did and build one on the fly - wiping out a few institutions and then using an expanded EFSF/Eurobond structure to prevent systemic collapse. But politically that is increasingly feeling like a long shot. Rather it looks like we will get 17 TARPs - one for each country. That is going to require a US style socialization of each banking system - with many WAMUs, Wachovias, AIGs and IndyMacs along the way. The road map for Europe is still 2008 in the US, with the end game a country by country socialization of their commercial banks. The fact is that the Germans are NOT going to pay for pan European structure to recap French and Italian banks - even though it is probably a more cost effective solution for both the German banks and taxpayers....Expect a massive policy response in Europe and a move towards financial market nationlaization that will make the US experience look like a walk in the park. " Must read for anyone who wants a glimpse of the endgame. Oh, good luck China. You'll need it.”

Esta es la historia completa