Licencia Creative Commons

Showing posts with label JEFFREY D. SACHS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JEFFREY D. SACHS. Show all posts

Saturday, December 10, 2022

Jeffrey D. Sachs: A Negotiated End to Fighting in Ukraine

 

JEFFREY SACHS: I think both sides see that there is no military way out. I’m speaking of NATO and Ukraine on one side and Russia on the other side. This war, like von Clausewitz told us two centuries ago, is politics by other means, or with other means, meaning that there are political issues at stake here, and those are what need to be negotiated. What President Macron said is absolutely correct, that President Putin wants political outcomes that, in my view, absolutely can be met at the negotiating table. Just to quote what Macron said in another interview, he said, “One of the essential points we must address” — meaning we, the West — “as President Putin has always said, is the fear that NATO comes right up to its doors, and the deployment of weapons that could threaten Russia.” Much of this war has been about NATO enlargement, from the beginning. And, in fact, since NATO enlargement to Ukraine and Georgia were put on the table by President George W. Bush Jr. and then carried forward by the U.S. neocons basically for the next 14 years, this issue has been central, and it’s been raised as central. But President Biden, at the end of 2021, refused to negotiate over the NATO issue. But now is the time to negotiate over the NATO issue. That’s the geopolitics at stake. There are other issues, as well, but the point is, this war needs to end because it’s a disaster for everybody, a threat to the whole world. According to European Union President Ursula von der Leyen last week, 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died, 20,000 civilians. And the war continues. And so, this is an utter disaster, and we have not searched for the political solution. What’s interesting, Amy, and I would emphasize it, is that inside the U.S. we’re finally hearing about this. President Biden’s statement was very consequential, but the week before that, perhaps as notable was the statement of the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, who said, “Now is the time to negotiate.” What we see is a big debate inside the administration between the neocons on the one side and, I would say, those who see reality on the other side. Victoria Nuland, probably our neocon-in-chief in the administration, who’s been part of this NATO enlargement from the start, said, “No, can’t negotiate.” But others are saying, you know, it’s really time. So, this is a debate within the U.S. as much as it is a question of a sitting down between the United States and Russia. 

 (...) AMY GOODMAN: You’ve denounced Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? 

 JEFFREY SACHS: Of course. Absolutely, this was a collision that is disastrous, and the cruelty of the Russian invasion is enormous. But the foolishness, recklessness of the U.S. neoconservatives to push to this point is also something that needs accounting. AMY GOODMAN: Finally, Professor Sachs — 

JEFFREY SACHS: Because — sure. 

 AMY GOODMAN: Who would negotiate? Who would be the mediator that you’re talking about, or mediators? We have 30 seconds. 

JEFFREY SACHS: Clearly, the Turks are extremely skilled. This is their region. They’ve been deeply involved. Pope Francis, the U.N. secretary-general, the U.N. Security Council, of course, which includes all of the major actors, all of these can play a role. But I would say Turkey, as a leader in the Black Sea region, who knows all the participants, can do this. But this is not negotiation between Ukraine and Russia. This must be between the United States and Russia over the NATO issue, as well as Ukraine and Europe over the security issues that are so much at stake and, of course, Ukraine’s core interests.

Monday, October 3, 2022

NORD STREAM PIPELINES BLOWN UP (SACHS AND HOBSBAWM)

#Megalomania is the occupational disease of global victors, unless controlled by fear. Nobody controls the USA today.This is why, as I write this in April 2002, its enormus power can and obviously does destabilize the world #erichobbawm, page 409 (FROM FDR TO BUSH)

Sunday, October 18, 2015

EL SINDROME JAPONES LLEGA A CHINA by Jeffrey D. Sachs - Project Syndicate

The Japan Syndrome Comes to China by Jeffrey D. Sachs - Project Syndicate


China now confronts the risk of the same sequence of events. Its booming exports in the mid-2000s led US officials to threaten trade retaliation unless the Chinese authorities took steps to restrict exports, cause the
renminbi to appreciate, and shift to “consumption-led growth.” This is the same message once given to Japan. The US insistence on renminbiappreciation intensified after the onset of the 2008 financial crisis.
The results to datecan be seen in Figure 3, which maps China’s real exchange rate from the start of renminbi current-account convertibility (1996) until today. The Currency began appreciating sharply in 2007. As in Japan, the appreciation sparked destabilizing capital flows into China on the assumption that the renminbi, like the yen before it, had nowhere to go but up.

As in Japan, a financial bubble accompanied the currency appreciation. Yet, as Figure 4 shows, the real appreciation led to a rapid collapse of China’s annual export growth, from above 15% (smoothed over three-year intervals) to below 10%, and now to a financial slump as well.

From 2007 to 2014,the renminbi appreciated by 32% in real, trade-weighted terms; by May 2015 (the most recent month of the reported index), its total appreciation had reached 40%. This partly reflected nominal appreciation against the US dollar, together with effective appreciation against the euro, yen, Korean won, and other currencies as the US dollar strengthened relative to them.

The renminbi remains highly overvalued, despite August’s modest 3% nominal depreciation against the soaring US dollar. The renminbi’s real appreciation should be compared with the recent movements of the yen and won. As of May 2015, the yen had depreciated in real terms by around 7% since January 2007, and the won by around 3%, thereby exacerbating the cost pressures on China’s exporters relative to their Asian competitors.

Further depreciation of the renminbi seems necessary if China is to bolster its flagging economic growth and avoid a long-term “Japan trap.” It is important to note that many of China’s increased exports would find their way not to the US and Europe but to Africa and Asia, especially in the form of infrastructure equipment and other machinery. Nonetheless, political pressures from the US and Europe, manifested as charges of currency manipulation and unfair trade practices, as well as misguided ideas in China about the renminbi’s “prestige,” might lead China to resist any meaningful exchange-rate correction.

A month after the renminbi’s 3% depreciation, Chinese President Xi Jinping commented that, “Given the current economic and financial conditions at home and abroad, there is no basis for sustained depreciation of the RMB.” In recent weeks, the People’s Bank of China has been defending the currency’s valuation through foreign-exchange sales. 

Earlier this year, The Economist offered the conventional Western thinking.Don’t let the renminbi depreciate, it wrote, for four reasons:depreciation might provoke a currency war in Asia; China’s companies are awash in dollar-denominated debt; depreciation might lead to renewed US charges of currency manipulation; and depreciation might reverse China’s progress in making the renminbi an international reserve currency.

Such misguided reasoning is precisely what led to a generation of unnecessarily slow growth in Japan. It could happen again in China.

Jeffrey D. Sachs

Read more at
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/renminbi-appreciation-slow-chinese-growth-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2015-10#d5pdK6GiaPOxbjdP.99