Saturday, July 7, 2012

¿PODRIA FINLANDIA (FIXIT) SER EL SIGUIENTE?

Hasta ahora los problemas de la zona euro eran los de los países del Sur con dificultades de deuda y crecimiento.El agravamiento puede incentivar también la consideración de la salida de los países "virtuosos" del Norte, con la intención de reducir los daños.Según parece y comenta Roubini aquí, Finlandia (Suecia y Dinamarca nunca estuvieron en la unión monetaria) esta considerando esta opción, lo que podría resultar un muy grave problema añadido.



Lamentablemente la metáfora de Roubini parece imponerse : "a slow motion train's wreck" ("el descarrilamiento a cámara lenta de una tren")

Some private unofficial estimates put the potential losses of Finland with continued EZ membership at between 10 and 15% of Finnish GDP.

Fourth, many social, business and political forces in Finland are skeptical of the euro and/or supportive of an exit. The most fervent euro-skeptic group is The Finns Party (formerly the “True Finns”). But even the broadly pro-euro National Coalition, the party of the current prime minister, contains opponents to the common currency, one of which is Finland’s President, Sauli Niinistö, who bemoans the fact that Finland bails out richer EZ members, yet is still pro-euro. Another party leader, Ben Zyskowicz, last week pointed out the EZ’s fundamental design flaws. For the time being, the forces formally supporting a “Fixit” are in the minority, but there is now significant internal debate on the pros and cons of membership. If Greece moves closer to exit and Italy and Spain end up on the verge of losing market access and requiring even more risky financial support from the EZ core, Finland may decide that the additional credit risk is not worth the benefit. Indeed, the country has already been the most vocal so far—in debates about the EFSF, the ESM and other aspects of the periphery bailouts—in requesting formal collateral or seniority for its contributions to the EZ periphery rescues.

For now, the ruling coalition is still firmly in support of EZ membership, but there are plenty in favor of an exit in the political opposition; even within the coalition, many are grumbling in private about the costs of EZ membership. A trigger to increase the chances of Fixit would be a decision by the EZ to increase the potential losses and credit risk of the core members—including Finland’s—via a fiscal and transfer union, debt mutualization and EZ-wide deposit insurance. At that point, the forces pushing for Fixit may get the upper hand.



EconoMonitor : Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor » Fix it or Fixit – Could Finland Be Next?

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