FAO: LA IMPORTANCIA DE UCRANIA Y RUSIA PARA LOS MERCADOS AGRICOLAS GLOBALES Y LOS RIESGOS ASOCIADOS

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported on March 11 (pdf), that international food and feed prices could rise by up to 22 percent due to the conflict in Ukraine, which may lead to a rise in malnourishment in less developed countries. Total global food output has fallen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, resulting in a sudden and steep reduction of food from exporting nations. Food prices have already been going up since the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus pandemic hit in 2020. Several food exporting nations worldwide are announcing additional food export restrictions, or are considering bans to protect their domestic supplies. The FAO has urged major food producing countries not to impose export restrictions on their own produce. “Before enacting any measures to secure food supply, governments must consider their potential effects on international markets,” said FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu. “Reductions in import tariffs or the use of export restrictions could help to resolve individual country food security challenges in the short term, but they would drive up prices on global markets,” he said. The conflict has critical implications for wheat supply internationally. Since the conflict in Eastern Europe began, Ukrainian ports have been unable to export grain, while food traders are avoiding purchases from Russia as a result of the financial sanctions, raising global prices. Russia and Ukraine together provide 19 percent of the world’s barley supply, 14 percent of its wheat supply, and 4 percent of its maize. In addition to grain, Russia is a leading exporter of fertilizer. The FAO’s food price index hit a record high in February and it looks certain to climb further in the months ahead, as it is not clear whether Ukraine will be able to harvest crops this year if the war continues to drag on. “Many of them are least developed countries or low-income, food-deficit countries” in Africa, Asia, and in the Middle East are highly sensitive to prolonged food shortages, said Dongyu. Fifty countries rely on Russia and Ukraine for 30 percent of their wheat supply when considered together, according to the FAO. About 70 percent of Egypt’s and Turkey’s wheat supply comes from Russia and Ukraine, while 90 percent of Lebanon’s wheat and cooking oil imports come from Russia alone. Poorer countries in regions like in Africa rely on overseas supplies to subsidize bread for their growing populations. Russia supplies most of Africa’s wheat consumption, which imported $4 billion worth of agricultural products from the country in 2020.